A lone polar bear, marooned on a shrinking slab of sea ice, has become a
heart-wrenching poster child for the effects of climate change in the
Arctic.
一只孤独的北极熊，被困在一块不断缩小的海冰上，已经成为北极气候变化令人痛心的缩影。
New climate models from an international team of researchers predict that in
as few as 10 years, that iconic creature could have nowhere left to stand in the
warmest summer months.
一个国际研究小组的新气候模型预测，在短短10年内，这种标志性生物将在最温暖的夏季无处立足。
That's decades before previous climate models predicted. The sixth report
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in 2021,
estimated a loss of Arctic sea ice by the midcentury at the earliest and
possibly as late as
2100.
这比以前的气候模型预测的要早几十年。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)于2021年发布的第六份报告估计，北极海冰最早将在本世纪中叶消失，最迟可能在2100年消失。
Scientists criticized those projections as too
conservative.
科学家批评这些预测过于保守。
Emerging evidence supports those criticisms and suggests past predictions,
like those from the IPCC, really did underestimate the urgency of the Arctic's
situation.
新出现的证据支持这些批评，并表明过去的预测，如IPCC的预测，确实低估了北极局势的紧迫性。
In 2020, for instance, another climate model also predicted summer sea ice
could disappear in the icy north as soon as
2035.
例如，在2020年，另一个气候模型也预测，夏季海冰最早可能在2035年在冰冷的北方消失。
When researchers in Germany, South Korea, and Canada projected these patterns
into the future, they found sea ice disappearing in the Arctic summers starting
in the 2030s, and this was apparent no matter how many fossil fuels were
burned.
当德国、韩国和加拿大的研究人员预测未来的这些模式时，他们发现，到2030年，北极的夏季海冰就会消失，无论燃烧多少化石燃料，这一点都无法避免。
For a lower emissions scenario, the models predicted ice-free moments that
were shorter and confined to the end of summer. In a high emissions scenario, on
the other hand, the Arctic was estimated to be free of sea ice from August to
September.
在低排放情景下，模型预测无冰的时间会更短，并且仅限于夏末。相反，在高排放情境下，北极在8月至9月期间估计没有海冰。
"These results emphasize the profound impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on
the Arctic and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a
seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future," researchers
write.
研究人员写道:“这些结果强调了温室气体排放对北极的深远影响，并证明了在不久的将来，规划和适应季节性无冰北极的重要性。”
It's not like we didn't see this future coming; it's just arriving much
sooner than expected.
这并不是说我们没有预见到未来的到来;只是比预期来得早。
In the past 30 years alone, 95 percent of the Arctic's oldest and thickest
sea ice has melted away, and more than 70 percent of current coverage is now
considered 'seasonal', meaning it doesn't last through the
summer.
仅在过去的30年里，95%的北极最古老、最厚的海冰已经融化，超过70%的海冰现在被认定为是“季节性海冰”，也就是说它们持续不到夏天。
If those last remaining platforms melt away, the consequences will be dire
for more animals than polar bears and regions than just the
Arctic.
如果连这些最后剩下的海冰都融化了，后果将是可怕的，不仅仅是对北极熊和北极地区来说。
Sea ice coverage in the northern hemisphere plays a crucial role in the
global climate because it reflects sunlight. Its loss could impact ocean
temperatures and currents
globally.
北半球海冰覆盖面积在反射阳光方面起着至关重要的作用。它的消失可能会影响全球的海洋温度和洋流。
The study was published in Nature Communications.
这项研究发表在《自然通讯》杂志上。